{"id":44992,"date":"2024-01-11T06:39:23","date_gmt":"2024-01-11T05:39:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/?p=44992"},"modified":"2024-01-11T06:39:27","modified_gmt":"2024-01-11T05:39:27","slug":"ekonom-o-zmene-mimoradne-valorizace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/?p=44992","title":{"rendered":"Ekonom o zm\u011bn\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizace"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u010cT24
Letos by z rozpo\u010dtu na penze m\u011blo putovat v\u00edc ne\u017e 700 miliard korun, to je skoro t\u0159etina v\u0161ech st\u00e1tn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f. D\u016fchodov\u00fd syst\u00e9m ale i tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v deficitu, propad m\u00e1 p\u0159ibrzdit pomalej\u0161\u00ed navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed penz\u00ed a zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed pravidel u p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch d\u016fchod\u016f, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1da loni prosadila. Novela se zm\u011bnami za\u010dala platit v \u0159\u00edjnu, d\u016fchody se podle n\u00ed budou valorizovat a\u017e v lednu roku 2025. D\u016fchodov\u00e1 reforma je podle\u00a0ministra<\/strong>\u00a0pr\u00e1ce<\/strong>\u00a0Mariana Jure\u010dky nezbytn\u00e1, valorizace v nezm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9 podob\u011b by dlouhodob\u011b nav\u00fd\u0161ila n\u00e1klady o stovky miliard korun. A na\u0161\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edm hostem je ekonom Filip Pertold. Dobr\u00fd ve\u010der p\u0159eju.

Podle d\u016fvodov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy k t\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizace m\u011bla ta zm\u011bna p\u0159in\u00e9st st\u00e1tn\u00edmu rozpo\u010dtu v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce nebo u\u0161et\u0159it t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20 miliard korun. Dnes jsme se dozv\u011bd\u011bli je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, \u017ee v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu tak st\u00e1t u\u0161et\u0159\u00ed a\u017e 400 miliard korun, tak minist\u0159i argumentovali, \u017ee v opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by to st\u00e1tu p\u0159ineslo zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody. Skute\u010dn\u011b v tom lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce ta zm\u011bna mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizace v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bla k tomu, \u017ee jsme dodr\u017eeli schv\u00e1len\u00fd schodek st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu?

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
Tak je pravda, \u017ee ty v\u00fddaje by byly zhruba o t\u011bch 20 miliard vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, i tak ten schodek d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu vlastn\u011b za lo\u0148sk\u00fd rok bude asi 80 miliard, tak\u017ee by to, prost\u011b ten schodek st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu by byl o dal\u0161\u00edch 20 miliard vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.

moder\u00e1tor
——————–
Kdy\u017e dnes mluvili pr\u00e1v\u011b minist\u0159i Jure\u010dka a Stanjura o t\u011bch dlouhodob\u00fdch \u0161kod\u00e1ch, to je ta \u010d\u00e1stka 400 miliard, dopad ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5,4 % HDP. D\u00e1 se z n\u011b\u010deho dovodit, \u017ee ta suma sed\u00ed, \u017ee to nen\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo vyta\u017een\u00e9 z klobouku?

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
Lze to dovodit prost\u011b z toho vzore\u010dku, jak se vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u016fchody a plus teda z n\u011bjak\u00fdch makroekonomick\u00fdch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f, proto\u017ee ty jsou z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159i t\u011bchto v\u00fdpo\u010dtech. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, kdyby dlouhodob\u011b byla inflace velmi, velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1, tak by ty dopady byly ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ale pokud prost\u011b bude standardn\u00ed tak, jak byla obvykle a ta inflace prim\u00e1rn\u011b teda zvy\u0161uje ty valorizace, tak pak bychom se dobrali v horizontu des\u00edtek let takov\u00e9ho \u010d\u00edsla.

Ji\u0159\u00ed V\u00c1CLAVEK, moder\u00e1tor
——————–
Div\u00e1k Jaroslav: „Kdy\u017e vl\u00e1da spor u \u00dastavn\u00edho soudu prohraje, kolik n\u00e1s to bude st\u00e1t?“ Je mo\u017en\u00e1 automaticky dovodit, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt a\u017e 400 miliard nebo ta \u010d\u00e1stka m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jin\u00e1?

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
No, to z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed trochu, jak se bude pr\u00e1v\u011b vyv\u00edjet dlouhodob\u011b ta na\u0161e ekonomika, pokud by se vyv\u00edjela podle n\u011bjak\u00fdch standardn\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f, co\u017e je inflace na t\u011bch 2 a\u017e 3 %, r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd 3 %, 2 %, tak asi bychom se dobrali a\u017e k tomuto \u010d\u00edslu, ale mus\u00edme \u0159\u00edct a\u017e v dlouh\u00e9m horizontu. Ty nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady by byly v t\u011bch, vlastn\u011b v tom nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed, ale tak, jak by ta ekonomika rostla, tak by rostly samoz\u0159ejm\u011b i, pokud ekonomika bude r\u016fst, tak by rostly i p\u0159\u00edjmy toho d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu a t\u00edm by se i jaksi ten deficit sni\u017eoval vlivem t\u00e9to valorizace, nicm\u00e9n\u011b ty \u010d\u00edsla by byly v t\u011bch \u0159\u00e1dech ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b.

Ji\u0159\u00ed V\u00c1CLAVEK, moder\u00e1tor
——————–
Hodn\u011b ot\u00e1zek \u00fastavn\u00edch soudc\u016f dnes sm\u011b\u0159ovaly k tomu, zda vl\u00e1da nemohla nebo mohla u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee ta lednov\u00e1 inflace v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce posko\u010d\u00ed tak v\u00fdrazn\u011b. Tak, jak se na to d\u00edv\u00e1te vy? Mohla, nebo nemohla? Jde o to, zda ta rychl\u00e1 reakce byla politicky motivovan\u00e1, nebo zda to opravdu byla nutnost?;

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
J\u00e1 mysl\u00edm, \u017ee ta pravda nen\u00ed tak \u00fapln\u011b jednozna\u010dn\u00e1, nicm\u00e9n\u011b to, co bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9 u\u017e n\u011bkdy od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nebo \u0159\u00edjna, \u017ee k t\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizaci dal\u0161\u00ed rok dojde, ale co nebylo zjevn\u00e9, v jak\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i, a tam se m\u016f\u017eeme bavit pr\u00e1v\u011b to, co\u017e ur\u010dila ta lednov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e inflace m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b na tom spot\u0159ebn\u00edm ko\u0161i d\u016fchodc\u016f, to je pot\u0159eba zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee ta se nem\u011b\u0159\u00ed, nebo v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee ta inflace je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed na tom d\u016fchodcovsk\u00e9m ko\u0161i ne\u017e standardn\u00ed CPI inflace, tak se valorizuje, nebo podle tehdej\u0161\u00ed legislativy se valorizovalo podle t\u00e9 d\u016fchodcovsk\u00e9 inflace, tak skute\u010dn\u011b ta v\u00fd\u0161e t\u00e9 d\u016fchodcovsk\u00e9 inflace nebyla z\u0159ejm\u00e1, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ten, v\u00fd\u0161e toho skoku v tom lednu p\u0159edem z\u0159ejm\u00e9 nebylo, bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee asi bude takov\u00fd, \u017ee k mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizaci bude muset doj\u00edt, ale nebylo zjevn\u00e9, k jak\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i.

Ji\u0159\u00ed V\u00c1CLAVEK, moder\u00e1tor
——————–
No, a nebyla chyba, \u017ee se kontinu\u00e1ln\u011b nesledovala pr\u00e1v\u011b ta d\u016fchodcovsk\u00e1, d\u016fchodcovsk\u00e1 inflace, to je taky n\u011bco, co dnes u \u00dastavn\u00edho soudu zazn\u011blo, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 instituce v \u010cesku kontinu\u00e1ln\u011b nesleduje d\u016fchodcovskou inflaci a potom se v\u0161ichni divili, \u017ee byla o 3 % vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ta inflace obecn\u00e1.

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
Ona se kontinu\u00e1ln\u011b sleduje, na ministerstvu pr\u00e1ce a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed se sleduje, to, co se v lednu d\u011bje. Je to p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed lednov\u00e9, to znamen\u00e1, v dob\u011b vysok\u00e9 inflace je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 predikovat, co se d\u011bje v ur\u010dit\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. A ta mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 valorizace se sep\u00edn\u00e1, kdy\u017e p\u0159esko\u010d\u00ed 5% hranice inflace nebo n\u00e1r\u016fstu cenov\u00e9 hladiny. A v lednu doch\u00e1zelo k p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed nebo zna\u010dn\u00e9mu p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed mnoha v\u00fdrobk\u016f, kter\u00e9 hraj\u00ed ve spot\u0159ebn\u00edm ko\u0161i d\u016fchodc\u016f velkou roli, a ta v\u00fd\u0161e toho skoku skute\u010dn\u011b byla obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 predikovat.

Ji\u0159\u00ed V\u00c1CLAVEK, moder\u00e1tor
——————–

Nechci o tom debatovat, jenom tu\u0161\u00edm, \u017ee u \u00dastavn\u00edho soudu z \u00fast z\u00e1stupce \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky zazn\u011blo n\u011bco o tom, \u017ee snad se ta d\u016fchodcovsk\u00e1 inflace nesleduje n\u011bjak systematicky, \u017ee by to bylo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9, ale d\u011bkuju za ten v\u00e1\u0161 pohled na v\u011bc a va\u0161e vysv\u011btlen\u00ed.

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
Znovu opakuju. Ona se nesleduje v mnoha bankovn\u00edch instituc\u00edch, ale \u010cesk\u00fd statick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad j\u00ed jako reportuje, ministerstvo pr\u00e1ce a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed m\u00e1 k dispozici statistiky, tak\u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b ji lze, akor\u00e1t ji nepredikujou ty bankovn\u00ed instituce standardn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, proto\u017ee standardn\u00ed inflace je m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na CPI.

Ji\u0159\u00ed V\u00c1CLAVEK, moder\u00e1tor
——————–
Rozum\u00edm. Rozum\u00edte tomu, pro\u010d vl\u00e1da loni ve st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu nem\u011bla \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou valorizaci penz\u00ed, \u017ee s t\u00edmto n\u00e1kladem v rozpo\u010dtu nepo\u010d\u00edtala?

Filip PERTOLD, ekonom, z\u00e1stupce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho \u0159editele IDEA, CERGE-EI
——————–
To jsme i v r\u00e1mci d\u016fchodov\u00e9 komise se nad t\u00edm trochu podivovali, nicm\u00e9n\u011b to \u00fa\u0159ednick\u00e9 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed bylo to, \u017ee v dob\u011b, kdy se uzav\u00edral n\u00e1vrh st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu pro dal\u0161\u00ed rok, co\u017e se d\u011bje pom\u011brn\u011b brzy, vlastn\u011b u\u017e v l\u00e9t\u011b, d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e je vlastn\u011b zn\u00e1mo, jestli k t\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizaci nedojde nebo dojde, tak v tom okam\u017eiku, kdy se pl\u00e1novaly jaksi p\u0159\u00edjmy a v\u00fddaje hlavn\u011b st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, jeho\u017e sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jsou penze, tak v tom okam\u017eiku je\u0161t\u011b nebylo zjevn\u00e9 stoprocentn\u011b, jestli k t\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 valorizaci dojde. Ale nem\u016f\u017eu \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee bych se s t\u00edm od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm \u00fapln\u011b ztoto\u017e\u0148oval teda, ale tak to bylo zd\u016fvodn\u011bno.

Ji\u0159\u00ed V\u00c1CLAVEK, moder\u00e1tor
——————–
Filip Pertold. Moc v\u00e1m d\u011bkuju. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010cT24Letos by z rozpo\u010dtu na penze m\u011blo putovat v\u00edc ne\u017e 700 miliard korun, to je skoro t\u0159etina v\u0161ech st\u00e1tn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f. D\u016fchodov\u00fd syst\u00e9m ale i tak […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nezarazene"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=44992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44992\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=44992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=44992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invarena.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=44992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}